Deterrence of North Korean Limited Nuclear Attacks
► The United States Intelligence Community has suggested in a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) extract released in June 2023 that nuclear attack and invasion is not very likely. Instead, the NIE said that North Korea has a high likelihood of using its nuclear weapons for coercive purposes.
► This suggests that the ROK and United States face deterrence and assurance challenges associated with low-end North Korean nuclear weapon use, such as provocative or damaging “nuclear tests” off the coast, or targeted attacks the North thinks it can get away with because of its “nuclear shadow.” It is critical to deter such coercive use of nuclear weapons. Failing to do so could escalate to broader nuclear weapon use on the Korean peninsula.
► No single action is likely to deter North Korean nuclear weapon use. But a combination of efforts may convince Kim Jong-un that any use of nuclear weapons for coercion would be very dangerous to his future, a powerful approach to deterring North Korea.
► This suggests that the ROK and United States face deterrence and assurance challenges associated with low-end North Korean nuclear weapon use, such as provocative or damaging “nuclear tests” off the coast, or targeted attacks the North thinks it can get away with because of its “nuclear shadow.” It is critical to deter such coercive use of nuclear weapons. Failing to do so could escalate to broader nuclear weapon use on the Korean peninsula.
► No single action is likely to deter North Korean nuclear weapon use. But a combination of efforts may convince Kim Jong-un that any use of nuclear weapons for coercion would be very dangerous to his future, a powerful approach to deterring North Korea.
