Stormy Times: Seoul in Political Chaos, Trump Returning to the White House
▶️ Trump 2.0 and US-South Korea Relations: Donald Trump's re-election as US president introduces significant uncertainty for US-South Korea relations, with potential challenges such as renegotiation of the Special Measures Agreement, changes to KORUS Free Trade Agreement tariffs, troop withdrawals, and shifts in nuclear deterrence policies.
▶️ US-China Rivalry's Impact: The intensifying US-China rivalry under Trump's administration is expected to reshape the US-South Korea alliance, with possible demands for Seoul’s involvement in regional security, including a potential role in a China-Taiwan contingency, which could provoke tensions with China and North Korea.
▶️ Strategic Adjustments and Economic Implications: While potential tariffs and foreign policy unpredictability may strain relations, South Korea could leverage its strategic importance and investments in the US to mitigate risks, while benefiting from technological decoupling between the US and China in key industries like EV batteries and semiconductors.
